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You said it....how about a plan.....the power(s) that be could never come up with a nation-wide one, which needed to be done.......too busy denying the whole thing at first, and by the time it finally sank In, it was way too late.....not sure that it really has sank in, what with all the politicizing that the situation was turned into.....
 

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What I'm curious to see is if there will be a spike in the cities where the protesting/rioting has occurred. I have not seen much social distancing happening there.
 

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MD continues adding new cases every day but we are growing linearly and have been for a long time. it started at nearly an exponential growth rate but not quite that steep. Hospitalizations have slowly settled into a downward trend after a steep ramp up. Deaths were on avg by my eyeball 50 per day from mid-april to mid-may -- then avg'd down to say 40 -- they may be going down a again. (it's a little hard to say as its clear the data drops every weekend) testing has gone up a lot and the so called positivity rate is down to almost 10%. But we've been told this is still too high to get a complete handle on it. but connecting all the dots is missing and our loosening to date has not showed up yet in the data yet that i can tell.
 

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It's ratio of positives coming back against all tests ... I think that's per day or 24 hr test block. What I've read but only intuitively grasp is that epidemiologists use this measure as an indicator that enough of a population is being tested to really get a handle on its infection rate -- who has it and where. So I don't know what that magic number is but a positivity rate in single digits somewhere probably closer to 5% than 10% is considered a "good thing". So we have some to go there.

So yeah md has come a long way on the tests but what's not at all clear is our overall objectives and time line.

If we have that I've not seen it.
 

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My model has us leveling out at around 1000 deaths per day in the new normal. That is an average number, I do not like the word 'spike' as it does not really apply to the data. Remember, there is no vaccine, there is also little evidence of herd immunity or even single person immunity. Just like a common cold, you get one (more or less) every year, never immune.

So, being part of a large crowd yelling, shouting, spitting; going back to school, going back to work, cases will increase.

"...nearly one in five people who get tested for the coronavirus in the United States is found to have it. " The Atlantic

Knowing this, we no longer need to test to collect data, just test if you have symptoms and your doctor needs to treat accordingly.
 

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I'm not aware of a nationwide blood sampling effort in the US for antibodies -- but that would make sense to me to embark on a such a program. I am aware of some state by state ones but don't recall the exact details. I'm reasonably sure I read that such a survey found about 20% of NYC folks had had it, but that it dropped off into the single digits from there as they went out into NY state. Their overall state infection rate is rather low then -- single digits. MD also found something similar in terms of an overall infection rate. And I've come upon these articles now from time to time -- iceland, italy, france come to mind where they've done this blood sampling for antibodies -- and I think the rates have all been in the single digits. So if herd immunity is 7 in 10 of the population - and we stick with a nice easy round number like 5% on average that have had it to date which is probably high -- one can see we have a long way to go.
 

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I saw that and there's a ton going on but it takes a breathtakingly long time to go through the trials and verify. I'm hopeful of course we can have some solid therepeutics that cut the death rate, especially among the highee risk groups. Yet short of 0% what's a good number?
 

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.... Just like a common cold, you get one (more or less) every year, never immune...
Well, you're close. Once you catch and recover from a cold you're immune to that particular strain of virus for a while. Unfortunately there are over 200 strains of viruses, so you have a pretty good chance of getting another cold.
 

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And I believe cold viruses mutate. Whereas so far the mutations of this one appear to be occurring slowly enough that a vaccine will still be effective ... Next year. But may well be we'll have to create a new vaccine for years...
 

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And I believe cold viruses mutate. Whereas so far the mutations of this one appear to be occurring slowly enough that a vaccine will still be effective ... Next year. But may well be we'll have to create a new vaccine for years...
That's my understanding as well. In the end, it will be like a Flu shot, protects against the known mutation but not against a new mutation. People will still die, as with the Flu.
 

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Yes but the flu death rate is calculated not counted per se. I wouldn't take much from the fact that the flu could be deadly. This thing is far worse. I think we're just lucky it's not 20% or something... it's just a % ...maybe a little higher, maybe a little lower...but right now a lot folks end up in the hospital even if they do get better. I wouldn't mess around with it. That's my advice.
 

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...I wouldn't mess around with it. That's my advice.
Been there, done that. Had the virus 12 weeks ago. I'm immune and no longer contagious. Other than a day of dry coughing, not bad at all. The Flu hits me much worse, aches and pains, chills and sweat.

I saw an article that the percent of victims admitted to hospitals did not reflect the percent population of smokers - much less for smokers (I've smoked, somewhat heavily for 45 years). They were going to investigate whether nicotine had a role in mitigating the effects. I have my own theory. The lungs, being covered in smoke residue (tar, etc) prevented an all-at-once overwhelming attack by the virus. Thus the body had a chance to fight it off, produce antibodies, from a small dose.
 

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I did hear ok read there was nicotine trial somewhere going on. But right now we got about 2 rocks to rub together ... That is for very sick. A few repurposed existing drugs which may or may not help. At least one antiviral about the same. There's the plasma, the antibody trial... Seems promising. But it's a long way from phase 1 to readily available even if it clearly works.
 
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